Sure, but on my model, good versions of those are a hairs breadth away from full AGI already. The creator of any system has an argument as to why its behavior does what they think it will and why it wont do bad or dangerous things. 464 quotes from Eliezer Yudkowsky: 'There is no justice in the laws of nature, no term for fairness in the equations of motion. Paul Christiano is trying to have real foundational ideas, and theyre all wrong, but hes one of the few people trying to have foundational ideas at all; if we had another 10 of him, something might go right. I expect that when people are trying to stomp out convergent instrumental strategies by training at a safe dumb level of intelligence, this will not be effective at preventing convergent instrumental strategies at smart levels of intelligence; also note that at very smart levels of intelligence, hide what you are doing is also a convergent instrumental strategy of that substrategy. I think that almost everybody is bouncing off the real hard problems at the center and doing work that is predictably not going to be useful at the superintelligent level, nor does it teach me anything I could not have said in advance of the paper being written. Thanks for your perspective! Im curious if the grim outlook is currently mainly due to technical difficulties or social/coordination difficulties. How much influence do they have? There is no plan. And many from the community of "EAs" worked inside these . : While Yudkowskys theories are credited by some inside this world as prescient, his writings have also been critiqued as not applicable to modern machine learning. The formalization of those arguments should be one direct short step. Im hopeful that we will also be able to apply them to the full AGI story and encode human values, etc., but I dont think we want to bank on that at this stage. He is a stubbornly original theorist of intelligence, both human and artificial. Why, sometimes we run the air conditioner, which operates in the exact opposite way of how you say a heat engine works.". like, maybe, but not with near 100% chance? Eliezer, thanks for doing this! The AI might offer a gatekeeper a recipe for perfect health, immortality, or whatever the gatekeeper is believed to most desire; alternatively, the AI could threaten to do horrific things to the gatekeeper and his family once it inevitably escapes. Which side of that wager are you on? If you are asking me to agree that the AI will generally seek out ways to manipulate the high-level goals, then I will say no. Yudkowsky: I think so. MetaMath http://us.metamath.org/index.html currently formalizes roughly an undergraduate math degree and includes everything needed for modeling the laws of physics, computer hardware, computer languages, formal systems, machine learning algorithms, etc. Theres no obvious winnable position into which to play the board. Relative to remotely plausible levels of future coordination, we have a technical problem. To do that using formal methods, you need to have a semantic representation of the location of the robot, your premises spatial extent, etc. KYIV Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was hospitalized after he contracted coronavirus earlier this week, a presidential official said on Thursday. Beyond that, nonfiction conveys knowledge and fiction conveysexperience. This is Mind Design Space, the set of possible cognitive algorithms. Let's conservatively set the prior probability of the Book of Mormon at one to a billion (against). Continue reading with a Scientific American subscription. By Derek Thompson Matt Chase / The Atlantic February 27, 2023 Saved Stories This is Work in Progress, a newsletter by Derek. If you have one person who's trying to say, "Every car is a thermodynamic process that requires fuel and dissipates waste heat" and the person on the other end hears, "If you draw a diagram of a Carnot heat engine and show it to a mechanic, they should agree that it looks like the inside of a Honda Accord" then you are going to have some fireworks. Heres a nice 3 hour long tutorial about probabilistic circuits which is a representation of probability distributions, learning, Bayesian inference, etc. For some reason those approaches have tended to be more popular in Europe than in the US. When I tried to adjust my beliefs so that I was positively surprised by AI progress just about as often as I was negatively surprised by AI progress, I ended up expecting a bunch of rapid progress. My (unfinished) idea for buying time is to focus on applying AI to well-specified problems, where constraints can come primarily from the action space and additionally from process-level feedback (i.e., human feedback providers understand why actions are good before endorsing them, and reject anything weird even if it seems to work on some outcomes-based metric). In recent years, the term sometimes used interchangeably with AI alignment has also been adopted to describe a new field of research to ensure AI systems obey their programmers intentions and prevent the kind of power-seeking AI that might harm humans just to avoid being turned off. Or where moral internalism is true and therefore all sufficiently advanced AIs are inevitably nice. Even if we somehow managed to get structures far more legible than giant vectors of floats, using some AI paradigm very different from the current one, it still seems like huge key pillars of the system would rely on non-fully-formal reasoning; even if the AI has something that you can point to as a utility function and even if that utility functions representation is made out of programmer-meaningful elements instead of giant vectors of floats, wed still be relying on much shakier reasoning at the point where we claimed that this utility function meant something in an intuitive human-desired sense, say. But Chris Olah is still trying to do work that is on a pathway to anything important at all, which makes him exceptional in the field. But if you want to know whether the brain isliterallya Bayesian engine, as opposed todoing cognitive work whose nature we can understand in a Bayesian way,then my guess is "Heck, no." And if there were a culturally loaded suitcase term 'robotruckism' that included a lot of specific technological claims along with whole economic and sociological paradigms, I'd be hesitant to say I 'believed in' driverless trucks. Therell be some minimum time-expense to do whatever work is required. Horgan: How does your vision of the Singularity differ from that of Ray Kurzweil? "Many researchers steeped in these issues, including myself, expect that the most likely result of building a superhumanly smart AI, under anything remotely like the current circumstances, is that literally everyone on Earth will die. However, one sentiment I saw was that optimists tended not to engage with the specific arguments pessimists like Yudkowsky offered. I think this Nate Soares quote (excerpted from Nates response to a report by Joe Carlsmith) is a useful context-setting preface regarding timelines, which werent discussed as much in the transcript: [] My odds [of AGI by the year 2070] are around 85%[]. They expect to have a website etc in a few days; the org is a couple months old in its current form. Theyre just extremely excited about building software that reaches artificial general intelligence, or AGI, a term for AI that is as smart and as capable as a human. But they don't have to! Anything in which enormous inscrutable floating-point vectors is a key component, seems like something where it would be very hard to prove any theorems about the treatment of those enormous inscrutable vectors that would correspond in the outside world to the AI not killing everybody. and you might know/foresee dead ends that others dont. Prove whatever you like about that Tensorflow problem; it will make no difference to whether the AI kills you. Explore our digital archive back to 1845, including articles by more than 150 Nobel Prize winners. If you happen to be an agent that has meta-preferences you haven't fully computed, you might have a platform on which to stand and call particular guesses at the derived object-level preferences as 'stupid'. But also: Aren't these tools awe-inspiring? (Both avenues might have solutions, but maybe one seems more recalcitrant than the other?). There's also a conceivable world where you work hardand fight malaria, where you work hard and keep the carbon emissions to not much worse than they are already (or use geoengineering to mitigate mistakes already made). One sect is certain AI could kill us all. The Universe is neither evil, nor good, it simply does not care. In other words, if you have an aligned AGI that builds complete mature nanosystems for you, that is enough force to save the world; but that AGI needs to have been aligned by some method other than humans inspect those outputs and vet them and their consequences as safe/aligned, because humans cannot accurately and unfoolably vet the consequences of DNA sequences for proteins, or of long bitstreams sent to protein-built nanofactories. Building safe artificial intelligence is crucial to secure those eventual lives. 8) We can build (and eventually mandate) powerful AI hardware that first verifies proven safety constraints before executing AI software, 9) For example, AI smart compilation of programs can be formalized and doesnt require unsafe operations, 10) For example, AI design of proteins to implement desired functions can be formalized and doesnt require unsafe operations. That you can't just make stuff up and believe what you want to believe because thatdoesn't work. More recently, MIRI received funds from cryptos nouveau riche, including ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin. Will they have anything resembling sexual desire? Rationality: A-Z (or "The Sequences") is a series of blog posts by Eliezer Yudkowsky on human rationality and irrationality in cognitive science. doing work that is predictably not going to be really useful at the superintelligent level, nor does it teach me anything I could not have said in advance of the paper being written, I think youre underestimating the value of solving small problems. By default, all other participants are anonymized as Anonymous. Its similarly easy to define constrained robot behaviors (eg. But the goodwill generated by the resulting economic boom might stand my government in good stead when I tried to figure out what the heck to do about Artificial Intelligence. Because if you wait until the last months when it is really really obvious that the system is going to scale to AGI, in order to start closing things, almost all the prerequisites will already be out there. Some in this camp argue that the technology is not inevitable and could be created without harming vulnerable communities. If you actually built an AI at some particular level of intelligence and it actually tried to do that, something wouldactually happenout there in theempirical real world,and that event would be determined by background facts about the landscape of algorithms and attainable improvements. Very grim. But even there, everything is subject to defeat by special cases. Is this too strong a restatement of your intuitions Steve? Literal immortality seems hard. Christof Koch on Free Will, the Singularity and the Quest to Crack Consciousness. . Todays reinforcement learning is slow and uncontrolled, etc. November 11, 2021 | Rob Bensinger | Analysis, Conversations, MIRI Strategy. He co-founded the nonprofit Singularity Institute for Artificial . (Eliezer adds: To avoid prejudicing the result, Brienne composed her reply without seeing my other answers. For one thing, I dont expect to need human-level compute to get human-level intelligence, and for another I think theres a decent chance that insight and innovation have a big role to play, especially on 50 year timescales. I dont want to sound like Im dismissing the whole strategy, but it sounds a lot like the kind of thing that backfires because you did not get exactly the public reaction you wanted, and the public reaction you actually got was bad; and it doesnt sound like that whole strategy actually has a visualized victorious endgame, which makes it hard to work out what the exact strategy should be; it seems more like the kind of thing that falls under the syllogism something must be done, this is something, therefore this must be done than like a plan that ends with humane life victorious. The central principle of rationality is to figure out which observational signs and logical validities can distinguishwhichof these two conceivableworlds is the metaphorical equivalent of believing in goblins. But I think it would be a step forward if the relative incentive to burn the commons could be reduced; or to put it another way, the more researchers have the option to not burn the timeline commons, without them getting fired or passed up for promotion, the more that unusually intelligent researchers might perhaps decide not to do that. Horgan: If you were King of the World, what would top your To Do list? At this early stage of AI development, we can still do this, and this should be part of humanitys preparation to coexist with this new, alien intelligence. And John von Neumann didn't have a head exponentially vaster than the head of an average human. Id love any thoughts about ways to help shift that culture toward precise and safe approaches! Yudkowsky: It'd be very surprising if college wereunderrated,given the social desirability bias of endorsing college. But basically all that has fallen. - I don't think you can time AI with Moore's Law. Even if the social situation were vastly improved, on my read of things, everybody still dies because there is nothing that a handful of socially coordinated projects can do, or even a handful of major governments who arent willing to start nuclear wars over things, to prevent somebody else from building AGI and killing everyone 3 months or 2 years later. Self-described decision theorist Eliezer Yudkowsky, co-founder of the nonprofit Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), went further: AI development needs to be shut down worldwide, he. I mention this as context for my reply, which is, "Why the heck are you tacking on the 'cyborg' detail to that? The flip side of this is that I can imagine a system being scaled up to interesting human+ levels, without recursive self-improvement or other of the old tricks that I thought would be necessary, and argued to Robin would make fast capability gain possible. What happens after that - does it become even smarter, see even more improvements, and rapidly gain capability up to some very high limit? 6) We can define provable limits on the behavior of AI systems that we are confident prevent dangerous behavior and yet still enable a wide range of useful behavior. Maybe more current AGI groups can be persuaded to go closed; or, if more than one has an AGI, to coordinate with each other and not rush into an arms race. He has also posted his books Mind-Body Problems and My Quantum Experiment online. Yudkowsky is communicating his ideas. The trouble is that nothing we can do with an AI like that (where human feedback providers understand why actions are good before endorsing them) is powerful enough to save the world. So the answer to your second question about sexual desire is thatifyou knew exactly what you were doing andifyou had solved the general problem of building AIs that stably want particular things as they self-improve andifyou had solved the general problem of pinpointing an AI's utility functions at things that seem deceptively straightforward to human intuitions,andyou'd solved an even harder problem of building an AI using the particular sort of architecture where 'being horny' or 'sex makes me happy' makes sense in the first place, then you could perhaps make an AI that had been told to look at humans, model what humanswant, pick out the part of the model that was sexual desire, and then want and experience that thing too.
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